It's a La Niña year, meaning a heaver than usual hurricane year in the Atlantic, and less than usual in the Pacific. The latter point is welcome, but our hearts go out to those suffering the ravages of Beryl in the Caribbean.
Turning to our own race, we are glad we did not decide to start the Pacific Cup this week! A huge low pressure zone wandered down and has smothered the entire course. The forecast for this week is “you are not going to Hawaii.”
Take a look at the surface condition chart found at https://ocean.weather.gov/Pac_tab.php. As of this writing, you can see that there is one giant isobar around the mid-Pacific. This lack of air pressure differential (which would be indicated by multiple isobars close to each other) means a lack of significant breeze.
What wind there is, is light. Five to ten knots in a sort of loose vortex around 30 by 135 degrees. You can move a boat in that, but not fast.
Is there any hope for us? Of course. The start is two weeks out. One thing that is constant in weather is change. Over the next week, we’ll be looking for signs in the 500 millibar and surface charts that the big sloppy low, like a Saint Bernard dog on the good sofa, will get pushed aside, allowing a normal pressure gradient (and favorable winds) to step in.
Failing that, pack plenty of water and sunscreen!